5. How to deal with multiplier effects of energy savings and how to avoid double counting in mixed top-down and bottom-up calculation methods

The implementation of one energy efficiency improvement measure, e.g. hot water tank and pipe insulation in a building, or another measure with equivalent effect, may have future multiplier effects in the market, meaning that the market will implement a measure automatically without any further involvement from the authorities or agencies referred to in Article 4(4) or any private-sector energy services provider. A measure with multiplier potential would in most cases be more cost-effective than measures that need to be repeated on a regular basis. Member States shall estimate the energy savings potential of such measures including their multiplier effects and verify the total effects in an ex-post evaluation using indicators when appropriate. With regard to the evaluation of horizontal measures, energy efficiency indicators may be used, provided that the way in which they would have developed without the horizontal measures can be determined. However, it must be possible to rule out, as far as possible, double counting with savings achieved through targeted energy efficiency programmes, energy services and other policy instruments. This applies particularly to energy or CO_(2) taxes and information campaigns. Corrections shall be made for double counting of energy savings. The use of matrices that enable the summation of impacts of measures is encouraged. Potential energy savings resulting after the target period shall not be taken into account when Member States report on the overall target set out in Article 4. Measures that promote long-term market effects should in any case be encouraged and measures that have already resulted in multiplier energy savings effects should be taken into account when reporting on the targets set out in Article 4, provided they can be measured and verified using the guidance given in this Annex.

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Source: EUR-Lex (Cellar) · retrieved 2026-10-29 · Text as adopted (Official Journal); later amendments are not incorporated in this text.