§6.2.2 Methods and challenges

(142) The lost profit associated with the volume effect can be estimated comparator-based by multiplying the counterfactual margin by the reduction in sales volumes stemming from the passing-on of overcharges. (143) Using the relevant data from the purchaser, the court may consider the comparator-based techniques described above to estimate the counterfactual margin and the counterfactual quantity. Since the observed profit margin and quantity may be affected by other factors unrelated to the infringement, it will in many cases be necessary to control for such additional factors. Hence, it would normally be necessary to employ one of the approaches described above in order to control for factors unrelated to the infringement, for instance a regression analysis. (144) If the data needed to perform the difference-in-differences approach is not available, other techniques of the ones described above may be considered, namely cross-market comparison or comparison over time. However, if such techniques are employed, it is also important to construct a sound counterfactual taking into account factors varying between the different markets or time periods. (145) The comparator-based methods rest on the assumption that the reference period or market is sufficiently similar, in particular with respect to market characteristics that are relevant for profit margins, such as the level of competition in the market or the cost structure of the suppliers. This assumption is not easily verified, as a large number of factors and strategic decisions are likely to determine a firm's margins.

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Source: EUR-Lex (Cellar) · retrieved 2026-09-07