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Box 10 Examples of impact prediction methods Direct measurements, for example size of area of habitat lost or affected, can identify proportionate loss from species’ populations, habitats and communities. Flow charts, networks and systems diagrams identify chains of impact resulting from direct and indirect impacts, in line with how they are caused, illustrating interrelationships and process pathways. Quantitative predictive models provide mathematically derived predictions based on data and assumptions about the force and direction of impact. Models may extrapolate predictions that are consistent with past and present data (trend analysis, scenarios, analogies which transfer information from other relevant locations) and intuitive forecasting. Some commonly used models predict the dispersal of pollutants in air, soil erosion, sediment loading of streams, and oxygen sag in polluted rivers. Geographical information systems (GIS) can be used to produce models of spatial relationships, such as constraint overlays, or to map sensitive areas and locations of habitat loss. GIS are a combination of computerised cartography, storing map data, and a database management system, storing attributes such as land use or slope. GIS enable the variables stored to be displayed, combined, and analysed at speed. Information from previous similar projects may be useful, especially if quantitative predictions were made initially and have been monitored during operation. Expert opinion and judgement can be derived from previous experience and consultations.

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Source: EUR-Lex (Cellar) · retrieved 2026-09-25 · Text as adopted (Official Journal); later amendments are not incorporated in this text.