4. CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES Current situation shall reflect the date of submission of the national plan (or latest available date). Existing policies and measures encompass implemented and adopted policies and measures. Adopted policies and measures are those for which an official government decision has been made by the date of submission of the national plan and there is a clear commitment to proceed with implementation. Implemented policies and measures are those for which one or more of the following applies at the date of submission of the integrated national energy and climate plan or the integrated national energy and climate progress report: directly applicable European legislation or national legislation is in force, one or more voluntary agreements have been established, financial resources have been allocated, human resources have been mobilised. The selection of exogenous factors may be based on the assumptions made in the EU Reference Scenario 2016 or other subsequent policy scenarios for the same variables. Besides, Member States specific results of the EU Reference Scenario 2016 as well as results of subsequent policy scenarios may also be a useful source of information when developing national projections with existing policies and measures and impact assessments.

Macroeconomic forecasts (GDP and population growth) Sectoral changes expected to impact the energy system and GHG emissions Global energy trends, international fossil fuel prices, EU ETS carbon price Technology cost developments Trends in current GHG emissions and removals in the EU ETS, effort sharing and LULUCF sectors and different energy sectors Projections of sectoral developments with existing national and Union policies and measures at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030) Current share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption and in different sectors (heating and cooling, electricity and transport) as well as per technology in each of these sectors Indicative projections of development with existing policies for the year 2030 (with an outlook to the year 2040) Current primary and final energy consumption in the economy and per sector (including industry, residential, service and transport) Current potential for the application of high-efficiency cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling In accordance with Article 14(1) of Directive 2012/27/EU. Projections considering existing energy efficiency policies, measures and programmes as described in point 1.2.(ii) for primary and final energy consumption for each sector at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030) This reference business as usual projection shall be the basis for the 2030 final and primary energy consumption target which is described in 2.3 and conversion factors. Cost-optimal levels of minimum energy performance requirements resulting from national calculations, in accordance with Article 5 of Directive 2010/31/EU Current energy mix, domestic energy resources, import dependency, including relevant risks Projections of development with existing policies and measures at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030) Current interconnection level and main interconnectors With reference to overviews of existing transmission infrastructure by Transmission System Operators (TSOs). Projections of interconnector expansion requirements (including for the year 2030) With reference to national network development plans and regional investment plans of TSOs. Key characteristics of the existing transmission infrastructure for electricity and gas With reference to overviews of existing transmission infrastructure by TSOs. Projections of network expansion requirements at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030) With reference to national network development plans and regional investment plans of TSOs. Current situation of electricity and gas markets, including energy prices Projections of development with existing policies and measures at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030) Current situation of the low-carbon-technologies sector and, to the extent possible, its position on the global market (that analysis is to be carried out at Union or global level) Current level of public and, where available, private research and innovation spending on low-carbon-technologies, current number of patents, and current number of researchers Breakdown of current price elements that make up the main three price components (energy, network, taxes/levies) Description of energy subsidies, including for fossil fuels

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Source: EUR-Lex (Cellar) · retrieved 2026-10-28 · Text as adopted (Official Journal); later amendments are not incorporated in this text.